A lot of people are panicking in the altcoin space at present, fearing that their death is here and the drive to zero valuation is coming. We are definitely in a bullish BTC, risk off altcoins scenario but is this the first time, should you trade the pair as a relative value trade?
The above gives us four years of the pairing, clearly we can see again BTC strength and DOGE weakness at present. What we also see is that when there is a correction in the spread it’s aggressive and pretty steep, not something you would want to be caught on the wrong side of without a discplined stop. For those thinking it’s merely a memecoin issue, ETH is experiencing similar and market participants are panicking about that, am I bullish for ETH long term…..absolutely.
Do I think the forward narrative is BTC strength and altcoins are descending to zero? Absolutely not.
Do I think this is a buying opportunity for DOGE, depending on your current positions, possibly yes, see my separate post on positioning in DOGE.
Would I be a ETH buyer here? No, slightly too middling price wise, would rather be doing a clip around $1800.
Many of our greatest trades are made when fear grips markets, when market participants panic and stops go off leaving moves to stretch further than they realistically should. A perfect example was in Spring when the tariff talk spooked markets and saw some excellent buying opportunities in digital assets. The current altcoin fear scenario may present a strong opportunity for being long, several are likely to move to a catch up move at some point as BTC possibly continues its surge higher. We only have to look to the late 2024 DOGE rally to 48 cents, longer term players who had built a position were left flattening several clips while those fearing the end of the coin were left to speculate over what they had missed out on.
Look out for my next post on DOGE positioning and a post on adjusting size and risk management. Don’t forget to subscribe and remember that paid subscribers get my exact trade levels.